美國商會為外商在台最大商會組織，會員涵蓋上千家跨國企業，與台灣政府互動密切。美國商會長年關注台灣經濟發展，能源政策。本月在商會月刊“TOPICS”社論中建議現有核電廠延役以確保台灣供電安全，茲轉載於本部落格(中英對照)供大家參考。
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訂定能源政策，此其時也
經濟部在1月底召開為期兩天的全國能源會議，有173代表 -- 政府官員、立法委員、學者、企業界領袖與公民團體代表共同出席。馬英九總統去年決定停建引發爭議的核四廠之後，與會人士利用這次會議討論台灣面臨的重大議題。在核四廠不能發電的情況下，台灣要如何確保未來幾年電力供應無虞?
不意外的是，這次會議未就未來的方向達成共識。主張將台灣建設成為「無核家園」的人士說，節約能源加上提高綠色能源的發電比例，台灣便可關閉現有的3座核電廠。這3座核電廠各有兩個發電機組，分別將在2018到2025年之間除
役。其他與會人士則反駁，太陽能和風力發電在發電滿載時有幫助，但不適合承擔全國電力供應的主要責任，因為沒有陽光或風力時，就無法產生電力。這些專家認為，除非接受經濟零成長(但台灣多數民眾不會接受) ，唯一實際的選項是跟世上許多國家採同樣做法，讓現有核電廠的服役年限延長到原定的40年以上。
由於這場會議未能達成任何共識，問題又回到政府手上。馬總統和行政院長毛治國致詞時表示，政府不排除任何選項，也包括讓現有的核電廠延役。他們強調要維持能源的多樣性，以保持彈性，並確保電力來源穩定。
核四廠興建多年，期間工程數度停擺，有人因此質疑核四廠的安全性，但不是每個反對核四廠的人都必然反對讓現有的核電廠延役，特別是如果核電廠如期關閉將導致電力短缺，進而削弱台灣的經濟。核電廠40年的壽命並非絕對。〈紐約時報〉就曾報導，在美國的100座核電廠當中，多數已經取得延役的許可，或者可能獲准延役，而一般的延役年限為20年。
此外，必須指出在核電廠延役的過程中，組件、設備及技術都得大幅升級，這應該可讓民眾對於延役核電廠的安全與可靠性更具信心。但這些大規模的汰舊換新與相關的工程會需要很長時間來完成，如果等到原定壽期即將結束的時候才開始，到時電廠關閉進行更新，全國的電力供應可能出現嚴重缺口。
比較合理的做法是分階段更新，最早需要更新的機組現在就要開始，配合定期關機添加燃料與維修的時間來進行。但在那之前，政府必須先讓原子能委員會審核台電公司有關核電廠延役的申請。
It's Time to Set Energy Policy
For two days in late January, a total of 173 delegates – government
officials, legislators, scholars, business leaders, and representatives of
civic groups - attended a National Energy Conference called by the Ministry of
Economic Affairs. The group debated the
crucial issue facing Taiwan following President Ma Ying-jeou's decision last
year to suspend construction of the controversial Longmen nuclear power plant. In the absence of power generation from that
facility, what should Taiwan do to ensure sufficient energy supplies in the
years ahead?
To no one's surprise, the conference ended with no agreement on the
best way forward. Proponents of making Taiwan a “nuclear-free homeland"
argued that conservation and greater reliance on green energy would make it
possible to close down the island's existing three nuclear plants (each with
two reactors) when their current lifecycles expire between 2018 and 2025. Other participants countered that alternative
sources such as solar and wind energy, while beneficial for peak usage, are
unsuitable to constitute the base load of the national power supply，as they are unavailable
when the sun is not shining or wind blowing.
Those experts see Taiwan's only realistic option - short of accepting
zero economic growth, which would be anathema to most of the population - as
extending the life of the existing nuclear plants beyond the original 40 years,
as has become common practice in many countries around the world.
With the failure of the conference to deliver any consensus, the
ball is now squarely back in the government's court. In their speeches at the conclave, President
Ma and Premier Mao Chi-kuo said that all options remain open, which should
include the possibility of recommissioning the current nuclear units. They stressed the desirability of maintaining
a diverse mix of energy sources in order to achieve flexibility and assure a
stable power supply.
Not all those who opposed the Longmen plant - whose on-again,
off-again construction schedule over many years raised questions about the
integrity of the facility - would necessarily object to keeping the existing
plants in operation, especially if the alternative is power shortages weakening
the Taiwan economy. The 40-year timespan
is not an absolute condition. According
to a New York Times report, for example, most of the 100 nuclear power plants
in the United States have either already been granted license extensions or
will likely receive them, generally for an additional 20 years.
It is also important to note that the recommissioning process
entails rigorous upgrading in components, equipment, and technology that should
increase public confidence in the relicensed plants' safety and
reliability. But that extensive
replacement and engineering work takes a considerable amount of time to
complete. If left until the end of the
original life cycle, the national power supply could suffer a debilitating
shortage while the plants are closed down for retrofitting.
A more reasonable approach would be to carry out the upgrades in
stages, starting now for the first units, timed to coincide with regularly
scheduled outages for refueling and maintenance. That cannot be done, however, until the
administration
gives the green light to the Atomic Energy Council to act on the
Taiwan Power Company's application for license extensions.
Time is running out to assure Taiwan's energy sufficiency. As
relicensing appears to be the only
practical option, the government needs to act soon to start preparations.
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